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By CHU CK MOOZAKIS For Fibre Channel proponents and IT managers eager to deploy the new connectivity technology, 1998 looks like the year. According to one market watcher, Fibre will blossom into a $7.3 billion industry in 1998, propelled by skyrocketing storage demands and enhancements to clustering technologies. "Storage [capacity] and server-based clustering deployments are two of the biggest advantages of Fibre," says Robert Montague, managing director of Morgan Keegan & Co. Inc., an investment banking firm that tracks Fibre Channel developments. "We see Fibre representing the next evolution of connectivity technology." Clearly, Fibre Channel's high bandwidth and fast throughput capabilities appeal to data administrators who are beginning to design storage networks robust enough to capture and transmit the graphics-intensive data companies are producing today. With a transmission speed of up to 100 megabytes per second, Fibre Channel outpaces prevailing connectivity technologies such as SCSI a nd Ultra SCSI. Another key advantage: device and distance connectivity. Through the use of arbitrated loops, Fibre can link up to 127 separate devices. And data can be transmitted over distances of up to 10 kilometers, opening the door for remote storage. Fibre Channel also supports a variety of protocols, including IP, enabling the transmission of video and other graphics-intensive commodities such as medical imaging, multimedia and scientific visualization. But another equally intriguing characteristic is emerging this year: Fibre Channel's ability to support the deployment of storage-area networks. SAN technology supports the attachment of storage devices linked by technologies such as Fibre Channel. In a SAN, storage is decoupled from the server, thereby improving throughput. "With Fibre, companies will be able to begin implementing storage area networks in 1998," says Tom Lahive, senior analyst at Dataquest. "This will represent the front end of Fibre's deployment in the enterprise." The Roll out The optimistic projections reflect an industry buoyed by dozens of announcements by major vendors outlining aggressive Fibre Channel product rollouts. Clariion, Compaq, Digital Equipment, EMC Corp., Hewlett-Packard and Sun Microsystems are just a few of the key storage suppliers releasing new Fibre products this year. Other equally aggressive companies-such as Ancor Communications Inc., Brocade Communications Systems, Gadzoox Networks Inc. and Sequent Computer Systems Inc.-also will be flooding the market with products such as digital switches, hubs and switched fabric support. Finally, storage management software companies such as Computer Associates International Inc. and Legato Systems Inc. have jumped into the fray by announcing Fibre-specific software packages to be introduced early this year. What it all adds up to is a year in which "Fibre Channel will become more of a mainstream technology and move more into mission-critical environments," says Jay Kramer, director of new business deve lopment and marketing at Unisys Corp. "The supporting argument for this is the number of companies that are now production-ready. IT managers can now purchase [Fibre Channel] hubs, storage arrays, host adapters and switches," says Kramer, who also serves as vice president/finance for the Fibre Channel Loop Community , an industry organization supporting deployment of Fibre Channel arbitrated loops. "Companies can accelerate the performance of what Fibre Channel can do in an IP environment." Moreover, he says, the deployment of Fibre will give companies more flexibility in the kinds of information they can use. Fibre is not just about being able to do things faster," he says. "More significant is its ability to enable new apps that weren't possible before. Medical imaging, telemedicine and graphic-intensive applications will now be enabled. Fibre will change how companies plan their strategies-from disaster backup to creating apps such as distance learning and video-on-de mand." For all of the high hopes expressed by vendors, Brenda Christensen, vice president of marketing at Brocade and president of the 200-member Fibre Channel Association (FCA)-another industry group promoting the development of Fibre Channel-says users should keep the deployment of Fibre in perspective: Early adopters should expect some bumps along the way. "We still have to make sure that the channel and the integrator get trained. The sophisticated customer is expecting a sophisticated sales channel. The key is not to oversell Fibre," Christensen says. "It doesn't solve world hunger, but it does fix a lot of problems out there." Interoperability, meanwhile, is another area Fibre vendors will be studying more closely this year. Brocade, for example, is spearheading a Partners Program, designed to provide integrators and users with a selection of tested components that mesh together. And the FCA plans a series of seminars tailored to making sure that components work seamlessly. "We need benchmarks ," Christensen says. "People are looking for interoperability for single solutions. Right now, it's a missing piece." In the meantime, Christensen says Fibre developers are ready to strut their stuff. "Fibre is now available for end users. I think we may have underestimated in the past how long it would take for Fibre products to get into the OEM channel. But customers can now expect products, and some very aggressive pricing to go along with them." As evidence, Christensen points to Fibre Channel switch and hub prices, which have now fallen to below $1,900 per port, and a corresponding price cut in Fibre host adapter prices, now at about $500 per adapter. A year ago, both devices were priced at twice the current levels. Market watchers believe prices for these devices will plummet 50 percent more within the next 12 to 18 months, as Fibre settles into its niche and its products are priced to sell.
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